It just doesn't add up

Well folks, you know I'm pretty passionate about the things I believe in. But I also hope you know that I don't believe in things blindly. I am a sensible individual and I always prefer more information, rather than less, when making any important decision. That's why I'll check multiple sources and round up the facts before I take a stand.

I would like to believe that my fellow Americans are doing the same thing, especially with regards to the presidential election. This happens to be the most important decision we're called upon to make as Americans, and nobody should take it lightly. Yet I have to assume that some people out there are failing to look at the facts, because I've been crunching some numbers and they just don't add up.

There's a helpful site called pollingreport.com which lists the results of polls taken by all the major polling and news organizations, and categorizes the results by topic (Iraq war, economy, health care, etc.). It is non-partisan and doesn't analyze or comment on the results - it simply reports them and adds no spin at all. When you look over the info on this site, you start to get curious about the fact that John McCain is currently tied with Barack Obama in some polls, and ahead in others. Because on nearly every major issue, John McCain disagrees with the majority of Americans.

Want some stats? Chew on these:

• With regard to national security, 59% of those polled say that they favor a timetable for withdrawal of our troops from Iraq (ABC News poll). A majority of Americans -51% - also said they favor increasing the number of troops sent to Afghanistan (AP/GfK poll).  Obama has strongly supported both the timetable and the increased focus on Afghanistan for months, while McCain has resisted both until fairly recently. He still refuses to fully advocate the timetable for Iraq, despite the fact that evn the Bush administration has now accepted this idea. In addition, Obama was one of the few governmental figures who warned against the Iraq invasion from the beginning, stating that "even a successful war against Iraq will require U.S. occupation of undetermined length, at undetermined cost, with undetermined consequences." McCain, even after years of military misdirection in Iraq, has continued to state that Iraq is, and should be, the central front of the war on terror.

The decision to go to war in Iraq was one of the biggest decisions George Bush had to make as our president, and it was arguably the biggest mistake he could have possibly made - one which hinged on faulty intelligence as its premise, redirected our military efforts away from the actual al-Quaeda network, had no exit strategy, resulted in the loss of thousands of lives and helped cause the disastrous economic downturn which continues to snowball out of control daily. When people say they want a leader who will make an effective commander in chief, it seems important to point out that Obama would have made better choices for our military agenda in the war on terror than John McCain.  ADVANTAGE: OBAMA 

• Most voters, in polll after poll, say that the most important issue in this election is the economy. And, in poll after poll, more voters say that Obama would do a better job at handling the economy than McCain. Specifically, regarding taxes, 51% of Americans say that those making a lower income are currently paying too much in taxes, while 63% say that those in the upper income bracket are paying too little. Finally, 73% say that corporations are paying too little in taxes (all results from Gallup poll data). Obama has clearly stated his plan to lower taxes for 95% of Americans, while rasing taxes on those making over $250,000 and on corporations. John McCain plans to keep the current tax policy imposed by George Bush, which, according to the non-partisan Tax Policy Center, would favor the highest earners and corporations. Just recently, former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan said that he didn't agree with McCain's proposed tax plan, stating "I always have tied tax cuts to spending...I'm not in favor of financing tax cuts with borrowed money."  ADVANTAGE: OBAMA


• Another hot button topic is health care. In a poll conducted this summer, 66% of Americans said it is more important for the government to provide health care coverage, even if it means raising taxes (ABC News poll). And in another poll, 67% think that the federal government has the responsibility to make sure all Americans have health care coverage (Gallup poll). Obama has long stressed his support for funding programs to make health care more widely accessible and affordable. John McCain has instead advocated a tax credit which Americans would use to purchase their own coverage, however he suggests credits which would be woefully inadequate to cover the typical family's needs (his proposed credit is $5,000 per year for families, while the national average for insurance premiums is $12,000 per year). ADVANTAGE: OBAMA


• In this campaign season where cultural and social issues are being so prominently highlighted, the topic of abortion rights has come up regularly. In a recent poll, 70% of Americans say that abortion should be legal in cases of rape and incest; 73% say that abortion shoild be legal in the mother's life is at risk; and 53% say that abortion should be legal in cases where the fetus is diagnosed with a fatal birth defect (Fox News poll). Across the board, in numerous polls, most Americans say that the Roe vs. Wade decision should remain intact. Obama supports choice. McCain does not, stating on his campaign website, "John McCain believes Roe v. Wade is a flawed decision that must be overturned...However, the reversal of Roe v. Wade represents only one step in the long path toward ending abortion." McCain's running mate, Sarah Palin, also opposes abortion, even in cases of rape or incest. ADVANTAGE: OBAMA


• In a world which is increasingly unstable, our Social Security program is an important issue for many current retirees and for all those who are concerned it might not be there for them in the future. Under current guidelines, payroll taxes (which go toward Social Security) are only taken from the first $90,000 of a person's annual income. In a recent poll, 63% of Americans say that they favor increasing payroll taxes by applying them beyond the first $90,000 in income. (CBS News poll). Obama advocates such an increase, but only for those who make more than $250,000 a year. John McCain currently opposes the increase in payroll tax, although he has flip-flopped on this issue several times. ADVANTAGE: OBAMA


• Finally, gun control has been an important point for many voters, particularly those in the heartland states. Americans do want to see a decrease in violent crimes, and their feelings on gun control echo this sentiment. 86% of Americans favor a waiting period between the time someone buys a gun and the time they receive the gun (CNN poll). 67% favor a nationwide ban on the sale of assault weapons (ABC News poll). And 54% generally favor stricter gun control laws (Quinnipac University poll). Obama advocates strict enforcement of current gun laws, and some expansion of gun control focused on criminals and the mentally ill, while retaining the rights of sportsmen and those law-abiding citizens who use guns for self-defense. McCain is a proponent of the NRA and broadly defends both gun owners and the gun industry. Specifically, as he mentions on his campaign website, he opposes the very issues most Americans support -waiting periods for those who purchase guns, and restrictions on assault rifles. ADVANTAGE: OBAMA

 

It seems fairly cut-and-dry...on the issues, Obama agrees with what most Americans say they believe in, while John McCain is distinctly out of step. So why is Obama having trouble in getting and keeping a clear lead over McCain?

I hate to say it, but I think it comes down to simple ignorance of the facts. People often rely on sound bites and political commentary when shaping their opinions. And you just won't get the whole story from sound bites, or from the opinions on Fox or MSNBC. It takes time to sift through the sources and get to the facts, without filters or spin, and most people aren't willing to invest that kind of time into the process. If more people had a grasp on where the candidates stand, I think the vast majority would agree that Obama is on the same page they are with regard to the issues.

The scary part about this is that this ignorance is a willful ignorance. People form a preference based on superficial reasons (Sarah Palin's personality, for example, or Obama's skin color) and then they take in only those bits of information which support their preference. They don't listen to reason, they don't research the facts. They just hear the spin and let it make the decision for them. And so we might end up with a president whose position on nearly every major issue is contrary to the positions most American voters hold.

I want to believe that Americans are better than that, and that they can see things for how they really are and not what the ads or the pundits say they are. I want to believe that they will take their task as voters too seriously to fall prey to shrewd marketing or media manipulation. I want to believe that they love this country too much to make their decisions based on personality or race, rather than on what the candidates can and will do to make America better for all of us. Unfortunately, based on the current polls, I could be wrong.

It just doesn't add up